Crystal Ball Gazing '09

The way things stand right now, it seems almost certain that the BJP has no chance of coming to power in '09 (Of course I'd love it if I were proven wrong). Equally, it seems likely that the Congress and some of its key allies such as DMK, Lalu and the Communists (yes, they're allies, no matter what they claim) will lose ground, thanks to anti-incumbency. What this does is pave the way for the regional parties to cobble together a dysfunctional 'Third Front' government, which will be supported by the Congress if that's the only way to keep the BJP out. The silver lining amid all this is that Advani has to step down, and that paves the way for Modi to step up. That, combined with the chaos and instability that are sure to follow once the Third Front government comes to power, mean that the BJP should be well placed for potential mid-term elections sometime in '11 or 12 (Somewhat similar to the way the BJP came to power in '98 following two disastrious years of the Third Front). I know this is awfully early to be making such far-reaching predictions, and until a few weeks ago I thought the BJP had a good shot this time too, but still, this seems to me to be the most probable path based on the current situation.